SILENT COLLAPSE AND STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY IN MALI (1990–2024): An Econometric and Discursive Analysis of the Links between Unemployment, De-statization, and Enduring Povertyv[EFFONDREMENT SILENCIEUX ET VULNERABILITE STRUCTURELLE AU MALI (1990–2024) : Analyse économétrique et discursive des liens entre chômage, désétatisation et pauvreté durable]

This article analyzes, over the period 1990–2024, the links between structural unemployment, the progressive withdrawal of the state, and the persistent reproduction of poverty in Mali. Using annual data from international databases (WDI, ILOSTAT, UNESCO, BTI, WGI), the study employs an ARDL model, a VAR, and structural break tests, complemented by a qualitative thematic analysis of post-2020 institutional discourse. The results show that poverty remains highly inertial, only weakly responsive to traditional drivers such as human capital, formal employment, or growth, while public spending largely remains reactive and focused on ex post responses. The discourse analysis highlights the substitution of institutional performance with a performative sovereignty, mobilized to legitimize the functional retreat of the state and justify the territorial fragmentation of social policies. The article introduces the concept of "silent collapse" to describe a regime of diffuse and discursively constructed institutional erosion. At the operational level, it suggests a reorientation of public policies around three priorities: refocusing education on measurable learning and local employability, territorializing basic social services through pilot districts outside Bamako, and strengthening budgetary composition rules to ensure fairer allocation. In this regard, the study contributes to a critical political economy of poverty and state fragility in postcolonial contexts, while providing practical benchmarks for policymakers.