LIBERTIES IN EXILE, POWER IN FATIGUES: Chronicle of an Authoritarian Drift in Mali (2020–2025)[LIBERTÉS EN EXIL, POUVOIR EN TREILLIS : Chronique d'un glissement autoritaire au Mali (2020–2025)]

Since 2020, Mali has been undergoing a military transition marked by a progressive and systemic regression of fundamental freedoms. This study analyzes the forms, mechanisms, and effects of this erosion by using a mixed-methods approach that combines an event-based database, a quantitative survey (n = 384), and 80 qualitative interviews. The objective is to understand how the transition has transformed the political regime into a fragmented, legally sanctioned, and increasingly legitimized authoritarianism. The findings reveal a multidimensional restriction of freedoms: arbitrary arrests (over 35 documented cases), widespread suspension of political parties, dissolution of organizations (CMAS, AEEM, MODELE MALI, etc.), closure of media outlets (RFI, TV5, France 24, Joliba TV), and the criminalization of opinion via the cybercrime unit. Data shows that 72.9% of citizens perceive a decline in freedoms, 74% practice digital self-censorship, and over 50% alter their communication even in private. The multinomial logit model confirms that the perception of repression is significantly associated with direct exposure, level of education, use of social media, and having a close contact who has been victimized. The analysis also highlights how fear has become internalized and structurally embedded, leading to widespread social demobilization. The study calls for a reform of repressive mechanisms, the restoration of constitutional liberties, and the rebuilding of an inclusive democratic pact.