The Trend Analysis And Long-Run Nature Between Human Capital Development And Economic Growth In Nigeria

The analysis looked at changes in economic growth and trends in the development of the Nigerian human capital from 1990 to 2020, alongside the long-term connection between economic progress and the advancement of human capital in Nigeria. Secondary data was utilized for this analysis. Annual data on infant mortality rate, GDP per capita, and primary school enrolment for the period of 1990 to 2020 were obtained from WDI. Data collected were analyzed using tables, graphs, and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Models. Also, human capital development was disaggregated into health and education components. While the health component of human capital was measured using infant mortality rate and the education component of human capital development was measured using primary school enrolment. Results from the trend analysis showed that economic growth of Nigeria which was proxied by GDP per capita fell from 1500 in 1990 to 1400 in 2001 but rose significantly from 2001 to 2015 before but suffering a downward trend from 2016 to 2020. However, Education which was measured using primary school enrolment rate rose from 85 percent in 1990 to 102 percent in 2006. But, a steady rate of decline followed from 2007 to 2020. More so, the health status of the nation improved considerably within the study period as Mortality rates fell consistently from 120 in 1990 to about 74 in 2020. After confirming the stationarity properties of the data, using ADF and Phillips Perron unit root test, the ARDL was used in the study to look at the long-term connection among the variables. Findings suggests that relationship exists among the variables of interest in the long run. We therefore draw the conclusion that the Nigerian economy has a long-term pattern of relationship with both economic growth and the enhancement of human resources.