Wind of Change: How Climatic Disasters are Reshaping Opinions on Environmental Policy[Un vent de changement : Comment les désastres climatiques modifient nos opinions environnementales]

Each individual in the United States is exposed on average to 9 climatic disasters during their lifetime, with possible effects on political attitude formation, in particular in the realm of environmental policies. Using data on the universe of hurricanes, floods and severe storms from 1953 to 2014, I show that exposure to disasters is a key determinant of support for environmental public action, and that it is lasting over the course of life. A standard deviation of climatic disaster in one's lifetime increases the probability of expressing a pro-environmental opinion by 9 percentage points and liberal views by 15 percentage points of a standard deviation. I show that the environmental effect is channeled by direct exposure in respondent's own county. Investigating heterogenous effects along the partisan lines of respondents reveal that it is mostly Democrats who are affected by the disaster experience, especially those living in red States. Results are also consistent with retrospective voting behaviors, as voters are more likely to punish governors who are ideologically less supportive of public action after a climate disaster. These results give ground for the growing evidence of polarization of US citizens on environmental issues