Trend in obesity in an aging society: an estimate of obese elderly in Brazil in 2030[Tendance de l'obésité dans une société vieillissante : estimation des personnes âgées obèses au Brésil en 2030. Actes du 4e Congrès International de Santé de l'IPLeiria]

Background: Population aging and the increasing longevity of older people are increasingly relevant worldwide phenomena. In addition, along ageing, a significant increase in the prevalence of obesity among the elderly is also occurring. Objective: To estimate the increase in the number of obese individuals, due exclusively to population aging in Brazil from 2014 to 2030. Methods: The number of obese adult Brazilians was obtained by extrapolation of the prevalence estimated by VIGITEL (Surveillance System for Risk and Protection Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Inquiry). in Brazilian capitals, in 2014, for the entire Brazilian population. The population projection for 2030 by age groups was obtained from IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). The prevalence obtained by VIGITEL in 2014 was applied to population projections by 2030, maintaining all other variables constant, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: The Brazilian adult population (18 + years) corresponded to 144.5 million people in 2014 of whom 15.5 million (10.7%) were 65 years of age or older. Obese adults accounted for 25.9 million (95% CI 24.9- 27.0 million) of the entire adult population (17.9%), of which 3.1 million (95% CI 2.8-3.3 million) were elderly obese. The obese elderly corresponded to 11.9% of adults with obesity. In 2030, it is estimated that the Brazilian adult population will reach 175.2 million people, of whom 30.0 million (17.1%) are elderly. Obese will correspond to 31.4 million (95% CI 30.1-32.8 million) of adult Brazilians of whom 5.9 million (95% CI 5.4-6.4 million) will be obese elderly. That is, exclusively due to aging, it is expected an increase of 5.5 million obese for the entire population. An estimated 2.8 million more are obese in the age group of 65 and over. Therefore, it is expected that the percentage of 11.9% of elderly among obese adults in 2014 will rise to 18.9% in 2030. Conclusions: Considering only the effect of aging with current levels of obesity prevalence, it is estimated that there will be an increase of almost 3 million obese people in Brazil by 2030. The impact of the increase in prevalence itself was not considered, which would make the prospect even more worrying due to the impact on chronic noncommunicable diseases and in the use of health services.