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PDP8: Genesis and exegesis and four questions to modelers

Author

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  • Minh Ha-Duong

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The presentation discusses the evolution of Vietnam's power development plan (PDP8) and raises four key questions for modelers. It highlights the significant changes in the country's installed generation capacity from 2010 to 2021, with a notable increase in solar PV and wind power. The presentation also compares the electricity production by primary energy source in 2020 and the forecast for 2022. The rationalist policymaking approach for power development planning is outlined, along with the modeling stacks used in the process. The March 2021 draft of PDP8 is presented, emphasizing the need for increased ambition post-COP26. The revision of the draft PDP8 is shown to be marginal, with concerns about financing the proposed LNG capacity. The four key questions for modelers are: 1) How much power does Vietnam need? 2) How to ensure a reliable power supply? 3) How to finance new grid, capacity, and ancillary services? 4) How much should EVN raise electricity prices?

Suggested Citation

  • Minh Ha-Duong, 2022. "PDP8: Genesis and exegesis and four questions to modelers," Post-Print hal-04495977, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04495977
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