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Voter Mobilisation and Trust in Electoral Institutions: Evidence from Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Marx

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Pons

    (Harvard Business School - Harvard University, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Tavneet Suri

    (MIT Sloan - Sloan School of Management - MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

In a large-scale randomised experiment implemented with Kenya's Electoral Commission, text messages intended to mobilise voters boosted electoral participation. However, the messages also decreased trust in electoral institutions after the election. This decrease was stronger for individuals on the losing side and in areas that experienced election-related violence. We hypothesise that the mobilisation campaign backfired because the Electoral Commission promised a transparent and orderly electoral process but failed to deliver on these expectations. Several potential mechanisms account for the intervention's unexpected effects, including a simple model where signalling capacity via mobilisation messages can negatively affect beliefs about election fairness.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Marx & Vincent Pons & Tavneet Suri, 2021. "Voter Mobilisation and Trust in Electoral Institutions: Evidence from Kenya," Post-Print hal-03873737, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03873737
    DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueab027
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pedro C. Vicente, 2014. "Is Vote Buying Effective? Evidence from a Field Experiment in West Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(574), pages 356-387, February.
    2. Gerber, Alan S. & Green, Donald P., 2000. "The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(3), pages 653-663, September.
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    4. Pedro Vicente & Paul Collier & Jenny C. Aker, 2011. "Is information power? Using cellphones during an election campaign," NCID Working Papers 02/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    5. Allison Dale & Aaron Strauss, 2009. "Don't Forget to Vote: Text Message Reminders as a Mobilization Tool," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 787-804, October.
    6. Stefan Dahlberg & Jonas Linde & Sören Holmberg, 2015. "Democratic Discontent in Old and New Democracies: Assessing the Importance of Democratic Input and Governmental Output," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 63, pages 18-37, April.
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    8. Thomas Fujiwara & Leonard Wantchekon, 2013. "Can Informed Public Deliberation Overcome Clientelism? Experimental Evidence from Benin," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 241-255, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariella Gonzales & Gianmarco León-Ciliotta & Luis R. Martínez, 2022. "How Effective Are Monetary Incentives to Vote? Evidence from a Nationwide Policy," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 293-326, January.
    2. J. Andrew Harris & Catherine Kamindo & Peter van der Windt, 2020. "Electoral Administration in Fledgling Democracies:Experimental Evidence from Kenya," Working Papers 20200036, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Jan 2020.
    3. Romain Ferrali & Guy Grossman & Horacio Larreguy, 2023. "Can low-cost, scalable, online interventions increase youth informed political participation in electoral authoritarian contexts?," Post-Print hal-04185976, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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