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Party’s rating and electoral forecasting: the case of French Presidential in 2022

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  • François Facchini

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article is an update and extension of the electoral forecasting model of Lafay, Facchini and Auberger (2007) for the French presidential elections of 2022. Lafay and al. argued that the Socialist Party's rating was a good way to predict the vote split in the second round of elections between the left and the right. Socialist Pary's rating, nonetheless, cannot explain Emmanuel Macron's victory in the 2017 elections. This does not mean that party ratings are not a good predictor of the 2022 elections, if a number of adjustments are made. Based on party ratings the indicators proposed in this article argue that the scores in the first round of the April 2022 elections should be as follows: 30.5% for Emmanuel Macron, 22.7% for Valérie Pécresse (all the candidates of right wing), 18,7% for Marine Le Pen and 24.7% for the left and far left. The second round Macron - Pécresse is favorable to Emmanuel Macron, but depends fundamentally on the vote transfers between the left and the outgoing President. If the left abstains and Marine Le Pen's election rallies to the candidate of the right (LR), then Valérie Pécresse can win with a score of 51% against 49%.

Suggested Citation

  • François Facchini, 2022. "Party’s rating and electoral forecasting: the case of French Presidential in 2022," Post-Print hal-03624729, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03624729
    DOI: 10.1017/S1049096522000440
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03624729
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    Keywords

    Election; Popularity functions; Vote functions; Vote - France; Fonction de popularité; Fonction de vote;
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