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Zone euro : après l’enfer, le purgatoire

Author

Listed:
  • Céline Antonin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

After four quarters of strong fall, GDP declined by "only" 0,1 % in the second quarter of 2009, showing the first sign of stabilization since the beginning of the crisis. The recession is due to both a decline of internal demand (mainly private consumption and productive investment) and of exports. The unemployment rate increased by more than two points, reaching 9,3 % in the second quarter of 2009. Quarterly growth should turn positive in the third quarter of 2009, thanks to a rebound of investment and a positive contribution of inventories. But as private agents would keep lowering their indebtedness, this would hamper the growth of private demand. With GDP growing only by 0,8 % in 2010, the standard of living per capita would remain largely below the pre-crisis level.

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Paola Veroni & Sabine Le Bayon, 2009. "Zone euro : après l’enfer, le purgatoire," Post-Print hal-03604475, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03604475
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.111.0157
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03604475
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