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Perspectives de l’immobilier résidentiel en France et en Europe à l’heure des subprimes

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  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Le marché immobilier supporté par la demande resterait actif en France. Une correction de 10 à 20% avec différents scénarios est envisageable : de l'atterrissage en douceur à un grignotage par de l'inflation ou un recul brutal mais bref des prix. Toutefois, les facteurs supports existent : démographie, augmentation des dépenses immobilières dans les dépenses de ménages etc. En Espagne, la correction serait beaucoup plus brutale, amplifiée par des éléments de spéculation immobilière d'acteurs institutionnels et de l'explosion des ménages espagnols aux taux variables. Au Royaume Uni, le cycle pourrait être également assez marqué. La stratégie plus flexible de la banque d'Angleterre pourrait atténuer le processus de correction.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Timbeau, 2008. "Perspectives de l’immobilier résidentiel en France et en Europe à l’heure des subprimes," Post-Print hal-03473706, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03473706
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03473706
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