Commerce mondial : croissance sans remous

World imports of goods rose by almost 10% in real terms in 2006 under rapid output growth notably in emerging economies. World imports will grow by around 8% in 2007 and 2008 less rapidly in industrial countries (7% per year), than in emerging economies, and first of all China (15% per year). The depreciation of the yen and the persistence of favourable relative export price developments will allow Japanese export market shares to stabilise. US exporters will gain market shares owing to the cumulated depreciation of the dollar since 2002, while Chinese exporters will continue to gain market shares. On the contrary, the strong euro will result in losses in market shares in the euro area, at the major exception of Germany where producers have managed to cut significantly their costs in recent years and benefit from a favourable product specialisation.