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Inflation : prix au piège

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Marion Cochard
  • Matthieu Lemoine
  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Frédéric Reynés
  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Considering the ongoing process of strong increases in inflation rates, this paper is interested in the risk that price and wage-setting behaviour could add to inflationary pressures. We first come back to the reasons that recently fuelled the rise in prices (oil and food prices) and assess whether those increases may be permanent or transitory. On that point, we expect that tensions and headline inflation rates should moderate. Then, we focus on the risks for second-round effects due to past increases. Inflation models are estimated for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United States and the euro area as a whole where we analyze the elasticity of consumer price inflation to oil prices. It is shown that prices are not fully indexed. Second-round effects should then not materialize.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni & Hervé Péléraux & Frédéric Reynés & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2008. "Inflation : prix au piège," Post-Print hal-03459808, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03459808
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.105.0275
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459808
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    Keywords

    Taux d'inflation; Effet de second tour;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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