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Découplage en douceur

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Marion Cochard
  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah
  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The world economy has proved to be particularly resilient to various shocks and global imbalances since the Internet bubble burst in 2000. The 2005 slowdown turned out to be shorter and smoother than expected and world economy is back on a high growth path in 2006. The reversal of the American real estate market is the main source of worry for 2007. We expect however the US economy to land softly. The housing market would adjust to a temporary excess supply without degenerating into a severe crash. Long term interest rates would be kept low thanks to subdued inflationary pressures and the prolongation of Asian central banks interventions, moderating the impact on world growth. In 2007 the US economy ceases to be the main engine of growth, relayed by Asia, Japan and to a lesser extend Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau & Christophe Blot & Eric Heyer & Marion Cochard & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni & Amel, 2006. "Découplage en douceur," Post-Print hal-03459230, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03459230
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.099.0011
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459230
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau & Christophe Blot & Eric Heyer & Marion Cochard & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni & Amel, 2006. "Découplage en douceur," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459230, HAL.

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