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Strategic fire-sales and price-mediated contagion in the banking system

Author

Listed:
  • Yann Braouezec

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Lakshithe Wagalath

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We consider a price-mediated contagion framework in which each bank, after an exogenous shock, may have to sell assets in order to comply with regulatory constraints. Interaction between banks takes place only through price impact. We characterize the equilibrium of the strategic deleveraging problem and we calibrate our model to publicly-available data, the US banks that were part of the 2015 regulatory stress-tests. We then consider a more sophisticated model in which each bank is exposed to two risky assets (marketable and not marketable) and is only able to sell the marketable asset. We calibrate our model using the six banks with significant trading operations and we show that, depending on the price impact, the contagion of failures may be significant. Our results may be used to refine current stress testing frameworks by incorporating potential contagion mechanisms between banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yann Braouezec & Lakshithe Wagalath, 2019. "Strategic fire-sales and price-mediated contagion in the banking system," Post-Print hal-02107567, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02107567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2018.11.012
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Feinstein, Zachary, 2020. "Capital regulation under price impacts and dynamic financial contagion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(2), pages 449-463.
    2. Bichuch, Maxim & Feinstein, Zachary, 2022. "A repo model of fire sales with VWAP and LOB pricing mechanisms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 353-367.
    3. Feinstein, Zachary & Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2023. "Interbank asset-liability networks with fire sale management," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Zhiyu Cao & Zihan Chen & Prerna Mishra & Hamed Amini & Zachary Feinstein, 2023. "Modeling Inverse Demand Function with Explainable Dual Neural Networks," Papers 2307.14322, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    5. Zachary Feinstein & Andreas Sojmark, 2019. "A Dynamic Default Contagion Model: From Eisenberg-Noe to the Mean Field," Papers 1912.08695, arXiv.org.
    6. Rudiger Frey & Theresa Traxler, 2024. "Playing with Fire? A Mean Field Game Analysis of Fire Sales and Systemic Risk under Regulatory Capital Constraints," Papers 2406.17528, arXiv.org.
    7. Hamed Amini & Zhongyuan Cao & Agnes Sulem, 2021. "Fire Sales, Default Cascades and Complex Financial Networks," Working Papers hal-03425599, HAL.
    8. Maxim Bichuch & Zachary Feinstein, 2020. "Endogenous inverse demand functions," Papers 2012.08002, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    9. Maxim Bichuch & Zachary Feinstein, 2020. "A Repo Model of Fire Sales with VWAP and LOB Pricing Mechanisms," Papers 2005.05364, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    10. Braouezec, Yann & Kiani, Keyvan, 2023. "Economic foundations of generalized games with shared constraint: Do binding agreements lead to less Nash equilibria?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 467-479.
    11. Banerjee, Tathagata & Feinstein, Zachary, 2021. "Price mediated contagion through capital ratio requirements with VWAP liquidation prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1147-1160.
    12. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš, 2022. "YOLO trading: Riding with the herd during the GameStop episode," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    13. Jiajia, Liu & Kun, Guo & Fangcheng, Tang & Yahan, Wang & Shouyang, Wang, 2023. "The effect of the disposal of non-performing loans on interbank liquidity risk in China: A cash flow network-based analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 105-119.
    14. Breuer, Thomas & Summer, Martin & Urošević, Branko, 2023. "Bank solvency stress tests with fire sales," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Yousaf, Imran & Pham, Linh & Goodell, John W., 2023. "The connectedness between meme tokens, meme stocks, and other asset classes: Evidence from a quantile connectedness approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Lei Li & Kun Qin & Desheng Wu, 2023. "A Hybrid Approach for the Assessment of Risk Spillover to ESG Investment in Financial Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, April.
    18. Beaupain, Renaud & Braouezec, Yann, 2024. "International banking regulation and Tier 1 capital ratios. On the robustness of the critical average risk weight framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Zachary Feinstein, 2022. "Continuity and sensitivity analysis of parameterized Nash games," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 10(2), pages 233-249, October.
    20. Coen, Jamie & Lepore, Caterina & Schaanning, Eric, 2019. "Taking regulation seriously: fire sales under solvency and liquidity constraints," Bank of England working papers 793, Bank of England.
    21. Thomas Breuer & Martin Summer & Branko Urošević, 2021. "Bank Solvency Stress Tests with Fire Sales (Thomas Breuer, Martin Summer, Branko Urošević)," Working Papers 235, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    22. Pang, Raymond Ka-Kay & Veraart, Luitgard Anna Maria, 2023. "Assessing and mitigating fire sales risk under partial information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    23. Feinstein, Zachary & Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2023. "Interbank asset-liability networks with fire sale management," Working Paper Series 2806, European Central Bank.
    24. Zhiyu Cao & Zachary Feinstein, 2023. "Price-mediated contagion with endogenous market liquidity," Papers 2311.05977, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.

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