IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02016755.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La prévision des ventes d'un nouveau produit de télécommunication : Probit ou théorie des avalanches?

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuelle Le Nagard

    (Groupe HEC)

  • Alexandre Steyer

    (Corps des Télécommunications)

Abstract

Cet article fait le point sur les difficultés spécifiques à la prévision des ventes des nouveaux produits de télécommunications : externalités de réseau, substitution intergénération, valeur d'option. Il expose ensuite un modèle probit de modélisation des décisions d'achat. Au vu des premiers résultats de vente, il apparaît que ce modèle est inadéquat pour la prévision. L'article cherche à améliorer les prévisions ex ante, en utilisant le modèle de Bass,–dont la saturation se révèle trop rapide –, puis le modèle des avalanches.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuelle Le Nagard & Alexandre Steyer, 1995. "La prévision des ventes d'un nouveau produit de télécommunication : Probit ou théorie des avalanches?," Post-Print hal-02016755, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02016755
    DOI: 10.1177/076737019501000104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02016755. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.