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Poisson QMLE of Count Time Series Models

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Ahmad

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Christian Francq

    (LFA - Laboratoire de Finance Assurance - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique (CREST) - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique)

Abstract

Regularity conditions are given for the consistency of the Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the conditional mean parameter of a count time series model. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator is studied when the parameter belongs to the interior of the parameter space and when it lies at the boundary. Tests for the significance of the parameters and for constant conditional mean are deduced. Applications to specific integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) and integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (INGARCH) models are considered. Numerical illustrations, Monte Carlo simulations and real data series are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Ahmad & Christian Francq, 2015. "Poisson QMLE of Count Time Series Models," Post-Print hal-01533548, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01533548
    DOI: 10.1111/jtsa.12167
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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