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Is the oil price drop such a surprise ? The good use of 'hybrid' energy prospective models
[Baisse «surprise» des prix du pétrole? du bon usage de modèles prospectifs ‘hybrides’]

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Leblanc

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this study, we give an example of the use of prospective models. What conclusions can we draw if prospective is not prediction ? How can contrasted prospective scenarios frame the public debate ? We first give an example of the fossil fuel market representations in the CGE Imaclim-R model. The choice of modeling enables to confront different perspective and expert point of view about : the amount of remaining oil resources ; the strategical behaviors of suppliers ; the drivers of final demand and key hypothesis on technologies. Scenarios are then analyzed to assess the main determinant of the so called peak oil (or plateau oil) disentangle the different rationalities behind Middle East strategical choices. We finally run scenarios to look at the best options of Middle East regarding the US light tight oil production, and shows that our modeling framework perfectly illustrates the recent decision of the OPEC to continue to flood the market with oil in response to the US as a new suppliers and concurrent.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Leblanc, 2015. "Is the oil price drop such a surprise ? The good use of 'hybrid' energy prospective models [Baisse «surprise» des prix du pétrole? du bon usage de modèles prospectifs ‘hybrides’]," Post-Print hal-01300555, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01300555
    as

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