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Politiques monétaires: la marche à suivre

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Stancanelli

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Valérie Chauvin

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - INSEE - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique)

  • Odile Chagny

    (Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA)

  • Hélène Baudchon
  • Gaël Dupont

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The tightening cycle has at last begun in the United States. Bond markets have joined this movement. The next step for central banks is to handle the huge rise of oil prices without derailing the still fragile recovery. Choosing to support growth rather than unnecessarily combat the temporary pick up of inflation should lead the Federal Reserve to a 125 bp increase of the federal funds rate (to 3%). The ECB should tighten its rate only once, by 25 bp. Counting on a softening of the housing bubble, the Bank of England should interrupt its tightening cycle after two additional moves. No move is expected from the Bank of Japan because the Japanese economy has not yet ended deflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Stancanelli & Valérie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Odile Chagny & Hélène Baudchon & Gaël Dupont & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plan, 2004. "Politiques monétaires: la marche à suivre," Post-Print hal-01218110, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01218110 Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01218110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric Heyer & Hervé Le Bihan & Frédéric Lerais, 2000. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 43-60.
    2. Vincent Hogan, 1998. "Explaining the Recent Behavior of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States," IMF Working Papers 98/145, International Monetary Fund.
    3. P. McAdam & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "The NAIRU Concept - Measurement uncertainties, hysteresis and economic policy role," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 136, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.
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