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Politiques monétaires: la marche à suivre

Listed author(s):
  • Elena Stancanelli

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Valérie Chauvin

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - INSEE - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique)

  • Odile Chagny

    (Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA)

  • Hélène Baudchon
  • Gaël Dupont

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Sabine Le Bayon

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

The tightening cycle has at last begun in the United States. Bond markets have joined this movement. The next step for central banks is to handle the huge rise of oil prices without derailing the still fragile recovery. Choosing to support growth rather than unnecessarily combat the temporary pick up of inflation should lead the Federal Reserve to a 125 bp increase of the federal funds rate (to 3%). The ECB should tighten its rate only once, by 25 bp. Counting on a softening of the housing bubble, the Bank of England should interrupt its tightening cycle after two additional moves. No move is expected from the Bank of Japan because the Japanese economy has not yet ended deflation.

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File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01218110/document
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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-01218110.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences Po, 2004, pp.163 - 178
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01218110
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01218110
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

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