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Markets analysis of different direct payments options for eu new member states using AGMEMOD partial equilibrium modelling tool

Author

Listed:
  • Frederic Chantreuil

    () (UMR 1302 Structures et Marchés Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - SMART - Structures et Marchés Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires)

  • Guna Salputra

    (LSIAE - Latvian State Institute for Agrarian Economics)

  • Emil Erjavec

    (University of Ljubljana)

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of different direct payment policy scenarios on agricultural markets for 10 new EU member states (NMS). The study is based on the AGMEMOD EU-27 dynamic econometric partial equilibrium models. The baseline scenario assumes the preservation of current policy, which would lead to further growth in production for most agricultural markets, resulting from accelerated technological development and the opportunities provided by the EU common market. The only exceptions are the dairy and beef sectors, in which NMS would face a reduction in competitiveness. According to model simulations, reducing the level of payments or abolishing them entirely would not result in any dramatic medium-term changes to agricultural markets in NMS by 2020, which could serve as an argument for supporting future CAP reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederic Chantreuil & Guna Salputra & Emil Erjavec, 2013. "Markets analysis of different direct payments options for eu new member states using AGMEMOD partial equilibrium modelling tool," Post-Print hal-01208798, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01208798
    DOI: 10.5367/oa.2013.0111
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01208798
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    Keywords

    POLITIQUE AGRICOLE COMMUNE;

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