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L'Europe moins vieille que prévue : la démographie favorable à une politique de croissance

Listed author(s):
  • Matthieu Lemoine

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    ()

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Frédéric Reynès

    (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

L'INSEE a publié en juillet 2006 de nouvelles projections de population active à l'horizon 20501. Le nouveau scénario affiché par l'INSEE modifie en profondeur la vision que l'on peut avoir de l'activité française à long terme. Les précédentes projections2 dressaient un tableau beaucoup plus sombre quant à l'évolution du nombre d'actifs pour le demi-siècle à venir. La population active devait atteindre son point haut en 2006, puis décroître de façon quasi-tendancielle jusqu'en 2050. Le nombre d'actifs devait se réduire de plus de 2,3 millions entre 2000 et 2050, soit une baisse de 9 % (graphique 1). Dans un scénario de diminution de l'offre de travail, le retour au plein emploi devait se faire rapidement (aux environs de 2010 selon nos projections). Mais dans un contexte de baisse rapide de la population active, l'économie française aurait vite buté sur des contraintes d'offre, la croissance étant freinée par la réduction de l'offre de travail (...).

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-01045224.

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Date of creation: 05 Mar 2007
Publication status: Published in Lettre de l'OFCE, Paris : Presses de la Fondation nationale des sciences politiques devenu Presses de Sciences-Po, 2007, pp.5-8
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01045224
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01045224
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

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