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Perspectives 2007-2008. Chine : l'horoscope tiendra-t-il ses promesses ?

Author

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  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Selon l'horoscope chinois, l'année du cochon doré promettait richesse et prospérité. Prophétie auto-réalisatrice, miracle des statistiques chinoises ou coïncidence heureuse, toujours est-il que le PIB a battu des records de croissance jamais atteints depuis 1995 avec un glissement annuel de 11,9 % au deuxième trimestre 2007 après 10,8 % en 2006 (tableau). Les déterminants de la croissance n'ont pas changé : l'investissement a crû à un rythme de 25 % en glissement annuel au deuxième trimestre, tandis que l'excédent commercial atteignait 162 milliards de dollars sur les huit premiers mois, soit une hausse de 64 % comparé à la même période de l'année précédente. Du côté de la consommation, l'indicateur des ventes de détail est resté stable à 12,8 % en glissement annuel (...).

Suggested Citation

  • Danielle Schweisguth, 2007. "Perspectives 2007-2008. Chine : l'horoscope tiendra-t-il ses promesses ?," Post-Print hal-01021732, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01021732
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01021732
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