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Prévision de la demande touristique par méthodes Delphi et Box-Jenkins

Author

Listed:
  • Tan Vo Thanh

    (Groupe Sup de Co La Rochelle, LR-MOS - La Rochelle - Management, Organisation & Société - CEREGE [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche en gestion [EA 1722] - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - ULR - La Rochelle Université)

Abstract

L'article étudie l'évolution des principaux marchés émetteurs à destination du Vietnam, à savoir la Chine, le Japon et les États-Unis dans le contexte touristique concurrentiel d'Asie du Sud-Est. De ce fait, nous analysons la demande touristique potentielle en provenance de ces marchés à l'horizon 2010 en utilisant deux méthodes complémentaires : la méthode Delphi et la technique Box-Jenkins. Les résultats montrent que le tourisme vietnamien verrait, selon la méthode Delphi, dans les années à venir ses arrivées chinoises, japonaises et américaines croître et valident l'efficacité de la méthode Box- Jenkins pour des prévisions à court terme. Par contre, elle ne s'avère pas très fiable pour des prévisions à long terme.

Suggested Citation

  • Tan Vo Thanh, 2010. "Prévision de la demande touristique par méthodes Delphi et Box-Jenkins," Post-Print hal-00596076, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00596076
    as

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