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Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition", Economic Systems

Author

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  • Ariane Tichit

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Fidrmuc Jan

Abstract

We argue that econometric analyses of growth in post-communist countries are vulnerable to structural breaks across time and/or countries. We demonstrate this by identifying structural breaks in growth for 25 countries and over 18 years. The method we use allows identification of structural breaks at a-priori unknown points in space or time. The only prior assumption is that breaks occur in relation to progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. We find robust evidence that the pattern of growth in transition has changed at least three times, yielding four different models of growth associated with different stages of reform. The speed with which individual countries progress through these stages differs considerably.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariane Tichit & Fidrmuc Jan, 2009. "Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition", Economic Systems," Post-Print hal-00437718, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00437718
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00437718
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kumo, Kazuhiro, 2016. "Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis," CEI Working Paper Series 2016-9, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Tamilina, Larysa & Tamilina, Natalya, 2014. "Institutional Grafting as a Three-Dimensional Phenomenon," MPRA Paper 63171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2014. "Structural reforms and growth in transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(1), pages 13-42, January.
    4. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
    5. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Public Investment and Fiscal Performance in the New EU Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 43-71, March.
    6. Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Mario Holzner & Roman Stöllinger, 2013. "Monthly Report No. 4/2013," wiiw Monthly Reports 2013-04, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. Tamilina, Larysa & Tamilina, Natalya, 2016. "Post-Communist Transition as a Path Break: Comparing Legal Institutional Effects on Economic Growth between Path-Breaking and Path-Drifting Institutional Reforms," MPRA Paper 75430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Vazba korupce a hospodářské svobody na veřejné finance a investice nových členů EU
      [Corruption and Economic Freedom Links to Public Finance and Investment in New EU Members]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(3), pages 310-328.
    9. Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2010. "Economic freedom as driver of growth in transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 469-479, December.
    10. da Rocha, Bruno T., 2015. "Let the markets begin: The interplay between free prices and privatisation in early transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 350-370.
    11. Tamilina, Larysa & Tamilina, Natalya, 2015. "The Impact of Variations in Institutional Grafting Modes on Economic Growth: A Three-Dimensional Approach," MPRA Paper 68648, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Apr 2015.
    12. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs, 2013. "Structural breaks in public finances in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 45-60.
    13. Astrid Ayala & Szabolcs Blazsek, 2012. "How has the financial crisis affected the fiscal convergence of Central and Eastern Europe to the Eurozone?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 471-476, March.
    14. Roberto Dell'Anno & Stefania Villa, 2013. "Growth in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(3), pages 381-417, July.
    15. Bozidar Cerovic & Aleksandra Nojkovic & Milica Uvalic, 2014. "Growth And Industrial Policy During Transition," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 59(201), pages 7-34, April – J.

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    Keywords

    Growth; reform; structural breaks; transition;

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