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From crisis to crisis: the high cost of the post-soviet institutional lock-in

  • Cédric Durand

    ()

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) - Université 13 - CNRS, CEMI - Centre d'étude des modes d'industrialisation - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Maxime Petrovski

    ()

    (CEMI - Centre d'étude des modes d'industrialisation - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

In this contribution, we shall try to characterise the Russian growth model the way it appears to have emerged in the 2000s, which we believe useful to explain the country's macroeconomic successes at an earlier stage as well as the severe problems it has to face now. We shall begin by presenting the macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation between the 1998 crash and up to the recent 2008 crisis, showing their very significant improvements in practically every area (part 1). However, the qualitative aspects of the economic growth suggest asking whether one the main reasons of Russia's economic success (high commodity prices) did not make it seriously sick with the “Dutch disease” (part 2). We shall further show that the impressive growth before the 2008 crisis was followed by a yet more impressive shock hitting the economy to the extent that very few analysts had imagined (part 3). We believe that the propagation of the crisis was amplified by the specific features of the capitalist system that emerged in Russia in the 2000s, particularly its “international regime” (part 4). We conclude our contribution by saying that the Russian model in the 2000 appeared to be intrinsically unstable before suggesting possible scenarios of finding paths to a sustainable growth model.

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Date of creation: 16 Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00407814
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