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A structural risk-neutral model of electricity prices

Author

Listed:
  • René Aid

    (EDF - EDF, FiME Lab - Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energie - Université Paris-Dauphine - CREST - EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF - EDF)

  • Luciano Campi

    () (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Adrien Nguyen Huu

    (EDF - EDF, CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Nizar Touzi

    (CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to present a model for electricity spot prices and the corresponding forward contracts, which relies on the underlying market of fuels, thus avoiding the electricity non-storability restriction. The structural aspect of our model comes from the fact that the electricity spot prices depend on the dynamics of the electricity demand at the maturity $T$, and on the random available capacity of each production means. Our model explains, in a stylized fact, how the prices of different fuels together with the demand combine to produce electricity prices. This modeling methodology allows one to transfer to electricity prices the risk-neutral probabilities of the market of fuels and under the hypothesis of independence between demand and outages on one hand, and prices of fuels on the other hand, it provides a regression-type relation between electricity forward prices and forward prices of fuels. Moreover, the model produces, by nature, the well-known peaks observed on electricity market data. In our model, spikes occur when the producer has to switch from one technology to the lowest cost available one. Numerical tests performed on a very crude approximation of the French electricity market using only two fuels (gas and oil) provide an illustration of the potential interest of this model.

Suggested Citation

  • René Aid & Luciano Campi & Adrien Nguyen Huu & Nizar Touzi, 2009. "A structural risk-neutral model of electricity prices," Post-Print hal-00390690, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00390690
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00390690v2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
    2. Tolis, Athanasios I. & Rentizelas, Athanasios A., 2011. "An impact assessment of electricity and emission allowances pricing in optimised expansion planning of power sector portfolios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3791-3806.
    3. Andreas Wagner, 2014. "Residual Demand Modeling and Application to Electricity Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13630 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Delphine Lautier, 2015. "On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets," Papers 1501.00273, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    6. Edouard Jaeck & Delphine Lautier, 2014. "Samuelson hypothesis and electricity derivative markets," Post-Print hal-01655800, HAL.
    7. René Aïd & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langrené & Huyên Pham, 2012. "A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problem and application to investments in electricity generation," Working Papers hal-00747229, HAL.
    8. repec:dui:wpaper:1504 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14413 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jaeck, Edouard & Lautier, Delphine, 2016. "Volatility in electricity derivative markets: The Samuelson effect revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 300-313.
    11. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "Electricity Spot and Derivatives Pricing when Markets are Interconnected," Working Papers on Finance 1323, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    12. Coulon, Michael & Powell, Warren B. & Sircar, Ronnie, 2013. "A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 976-988.
    13. René Aid & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langrené, 2010. "A structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives," Working Papers hal-00525800, HAL.
    14. Adrien Nguyen Huu, 2011. "A note on super-hedging for investor-producers," Papers 1112.4740, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2012.
    15. Kallabis, Thomas & Pape, Christian & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-290.
    16. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langren'e & Huy^en Pham, 2012. "A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problem and application to investments in electricity generation," Papers 1210.8175, arXiv.org.
    17. Rene Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "Electricity price modeling and asset valuation: a multi-fuel structural approach," Papers 1205.2299, arXiv.org.
    18. Sam Howison & Daniel Schwarz, 2010. "Risk-Neutral Pricing of Financial Instruments in Emission Markets: A Structural Approach," Papers 1011.3736, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    19. Aïd, René & Campi, Luciano & Langrené, Nicolas & Pham, Huyên, 2014. "A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problems in high dimension," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63011, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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