D4.1 LUM models atcountry, regional, and local résolutions: Report accompanying open-source code of ex-post models[D4.1 Modèles LUM à l'échelle nationale, régionale et locale : rapport accompagnant le code open source des modèles ex post]

This deliverable examines land-use and management (LUM) dynamics across Europe, integrating country, regional, and high-resolution local analyses. By leveraging Advanced econometric and machine-learning models, it explores how economic drivers, Policy instruments—particularly the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)—and environmental factors shape land-use decisions. The findings contribute to the LAMASUS project's overarching goal of fostering sustainable land-use governance while addressing critical challenges in climate adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and rural development. The analysis reveals significant spatial variability in the impacts of CAP instruments on land-use patterns. Decoupled payments showed modest positive effects on cropland expansion in low-productivity areas but had minimal influence in intensive agricultural regions. Coupled payments encouraged agricultural land expansion, potentially conflicting with environmental objectives. In contrast, Pillar II environmental subsidies effectively promoted sustainable practices, particularly in regions prioritising conservation. Environmental factors, including rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, emerged as major determinants of land-use dynamics, underscoring the urgency of integrating climate adaptation measures into policy frameworks. Socio-economic drivers, such as population changes and market conditions, further diversified regional responses to land-use challenges. The high-resolution models developed in this deliverable, supported by the WP2 geodatabase, provide a powerful framework for capturing spatial heterogeneity and offer elasticity estimates critical for other LAMASUS work packages, including WP6 and WP7. These models enable projections of future policy impacts on land use at fine spatial scales, ensuring robust forward-looking analysis. The results underscore the importance of regionally tailored interventions that reflect the diverse socio-economic and environmental characteristics of European regions. Moreover, the findings directly inform actionable Policy recommendations for stakeholders involved in specific case studies, offering targeted guidance for sustainable land-use planning and governance.