Effet peso : présentation théorique et application à la politique monétaire
This article deals with the theoretical implications implied by the presence of Peso effects in expectations. After presenting the Peso effect as the probability of occurence of an unusual event though important enough to be taken into account in the forecasts, we present a model able to isolate the systematic expectation error. The appearance of this error comes especially from imperfect information concerning the future states as well as the current regime. This uncertainty about the current regime leads the agents to implement a learning process for the model. In the last part of this article, we show how a credible central bank can limit the occurrence of Peso effects.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2007.12 - ISSN : 1955-611X. 2007|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00144659|
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- Fourgeaud Claude & Gourieroux Christian & Pradel J, 1984.
"Learning procedure and convergence to rationality,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
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- Martin D.D. Evans, 1995. "Peso Problems: Their Theoretical and Empirical Implications," Working Papers 95-05, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Salah Ghabri & Jean-Loup Madre & François Gardes & Marie-Claude Pichery, 1997. "Rationalité des anticipations des ménages. Tests qualitatifs sur données individuelles françaises," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 639-652.
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