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Combien nous coûte l’appréciation de l’euro ?

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Stancanelli

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor)

  • Valerie Chauvin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Guillaume Chevillon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Odile Chagny

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA)

  • Hélène Baudchon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Gael Dupont

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Catherine Mathieu

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christine Rifflart

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Paola Veroni

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Amel Falah

Abstract

Contribution of net exports to growth was markedly negative in 2003 in the euro area (– 0.6 percentage point). These evolutions have been caused — despite the recovery of the second semester — by the persistence of moderate growth rates of world exchanges observed since 2000 and by the euro's appreciation, the effect of which has become negative in 2003. Euro appreciation has reduced the growth rate of the euro area by 0.7 percentage point in 2003. Albeit our forecasts are based on a normalization of the euro/dollar echange rate, lagged effects of the appreciation would reduce the growth rate of the euro area by 0.9 percentage point in 2004. These global results hide nevertheless heterogeneity in the performances of the member countries, resistance of Germany contrasting with the structural weaknesses of the international integration of e.g. France and Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Stancanelli & Valerie Chauvin & Guillaume Chevillon & Odile Chagny & Hélène Baudchon & Gael Dupont & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth & Hervé Péléraux & Xavier Timbe, 2004. "Combien nous coûte l’appréciation de l’euro ?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03458735, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03458735
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.089.0205
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458735
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    Keywords

    Euro zone; Growth; Exchange rate; Zone euro; Croissance; Taux de change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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