IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution : comment s'ajuster en union monétaire

  • Vincent Duwicquet

    ()

    (CLERSE - Centre lillois d'études et de recherches sociologiques et économiques - CNRS : UMR8019 - Université Lille I - Sciences et technologies)

  • Jacques Mazier

    ()

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS : UMR7234 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité (USPC))

  • Jamel Saadaoui

    ()

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS : UMR7234 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité (USPC))

La crise de la zone euro illustre les carences des mécanismes d'ajustement dans une union monétaire caractérisée par une forte hétérogénéité. Cette situation reflète un diagnostic simple. Au niveau de l'ensemble de la zone, l'euro est proche de son taux d'équilibre. Mais l'euro est fortement surévalué pour les pays d'Europe du Sud, y compris la France, et largement sous-évalué pour les pays d'Europe du Nord, en particulier l'Allemagne (Jeong, Mazier et Saadaoui, 2010). Dans un premier temps, cet article donne une évaluation de ces désajustements de change au sein de la zone euro, en utilisant une approche FEER. De plus, en utilisant des données de panel sur la période 1994-2010, nous confirmons que les désajustements de taux de change ont divergé, reflétant des évolutions insoutenables. Enfin, nous estimons les transferts équivalents en % du PIB induits par ces désajustements pour les différents pays européens. Dans un second temps, nous utilisons une modélisation " stock-flux cohérente " à deux pays d'une union monétaire dans la lignée de Godley et Lavoie (2007) et de Duwicquet et Mazier (2010). Un budget fédéral est introduit avec des dépenses fédérales et des transferts sociaux financés par des impôts fédéraux et par l'émission d'euro-obligations. Le rôle stabilisateur d'un tel budget fédéral est confirmé face à des chocs asymétriques au sein de l'union. Parallèlement, le rôle stabilisateur d'euro-obligations destinées à des projets d'investissement est illustré.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/74/61/58/PDF/umadjust_cepn_wp.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by HAL in its series CEPN Working Papers with number halshs-00735142.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 25 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:halshs-00735142
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00735142
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Catching up or Competitiveness?," Ruhr Economic Papers 241, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Jacques Mazier & Sophie Saglio, 2008. "Interdependency and adjustments in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 17-44.
  3. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1161-1182.
  4. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
  5. Godley, Wynne, 1999. "Money and Credit in a Keynesian Model of Income Determination," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 393-411, July.
  6. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
  7. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2011. "The Current Currency Situation," Policy Briefs PB11-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  8. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  10. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "On currency misalignments within the euro area," Working Papers 2012-07, CEPII research center.
  11. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung, 2004. "Dynamic risksharing in the United States and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 809-836, May.
  12. Su Zhou, 1993. "Fundamental equilibrium exchange rates and exchange rate dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 189-209, June.
  13. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  14. Didier Borowski & Cecile Couharde, 2003. "The Exchange Rate Macroeconomic Balance Approach: New Methodology and Results for the Euro, the Dollar, the Yen and the Pound Sterling," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 169-190, April.
  15. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2012. "Dimension temporelle et taux de change d'équilibre. Une application au cas des États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(3), pages 535-544.
  16. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," Post-Print halshs-00435836, HAL.
  17. Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 1993-2005.
  18. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar, 2014. "Unit labor costs in the eurozone: the competitiveness debate again," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar, vol. 2(4), pages 490-507, October.
  19. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier, 2010. "Financial integration and macroeconomic adjustments in a monetary union," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33(2), pages 333-370, January.
  20. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  21. Barisone, Giacomo & Driver, Rebecca L. & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Are our FEERs justified?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 741-759, August.
  22. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  23. Micka�l Clevenot & Yann Guy & Jacques Mazier, 2010. "Investment and the rate of profit in a financial context: the French case," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 693-714.
  24. Mickaël Clévenot & Vincent Duwicquet, 2011. "Partage du risque interrégional. Une étude des canaux budgétaires et financiers aux États-Unis et en Europe," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 5-33.
  25. Olivier Blanchard & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2012. "(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(1), pages 139-150, April.
  26. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  27. Wynne Godley & Marc Lavoie, 2006. "Comprehensive accounting in simple open economy macroeconomics with endogenous sterilization or flexible exchange rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 241-276, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:halshs-00735142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.