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Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution : comment s'ajuster en union monétaire

  • Vincent Duwicquet


    (CLERSE - Centre lillois d'études et de recherches sociologiques et économiques - CNRS - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies)

  • Jacques Mazier


    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité (USPC) - CNRS)

  • Jamel Saadaoui


    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité (USPC) - CNRS)

The euro zone crisis illustrates the insufficiency of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Firstly, the paper gives an evaluation of exchange rate misalignments inside the euro zone, using a FEER approach (Jeong, Mazier and Saadaoui, 2010). Using panel econometric techniques over the period 1994-2010, we confirm that the exchange rate misalignments in the euro zone have diverged, reflecting unsustainable evolutions. Secondly, we use a "stock-flow consistent" model of a monetary union with two countries along the lines of Godley and Lavoie (2007) and Duwicquet and Mazier (2010). A federal budget is introduced with federal expenditures and social transfers financed by federal taxes and euro-bonds issuing. The stabilizing role of such a federal budget is confirmed facing asymmetric shock or the negative impact of exchange rate misalignments inside the monetary union. Similarly, the stabilizing role of euro-bonds used to finance European investment projects is illustrated.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series CEPN Working Papers with number halshs-00735142.

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Date of creation: 25 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:halshs-00735142
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