Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis
Heilemann and Schnorr-Backer (2016) presented a record of real-time announcements relating to the German economy. They assigned binary values to the information of each release. This paper shows that by applying CUSUM procedures to these binary values it is possible to identify the German recessions of 2008-9 and 2012 in pseudo real-time.
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