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Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis


  • Kevin Kovacs

    (The George Washington University)

  • Bryan Boulier

    () (The George Washington University)

  • Herman O. Stekler

    () (The George Washington University)


Heilemann and Schnorr-Backer (2016) presented a record of real-time announcements relating to the German economy. They assigned binary values to the information of each release. This paper shows that by applying CUSUM procedures to these binary values it is possible to identify the German recessions of 2008-9 and 2012 in pseudo real-time.

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  • Kevin Kovacs & Bryan Boulier & Herman O. Stekler, 2016. "Nowcasting German Turning Points Using CUSUM Analysis," Working Papers 2016-014, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-014

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