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Crime and political effects of a concealed carry ban in Brazil

Author

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  • Rodrigo Schneider

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of legislation in Brazil that banned concealed carry nationwide in 2003, and provided for a voter referendum 22 months later regarding whether to ban the sale of all firearms. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that gun-related homicides decreased by 12.2 percent, with the reduction especially pronounced in high-crime areas and among black males. Other crimes involving guns also declined. There is no evidence of substitution effect as non-gun-related homicides were not affected. Two pieces of evidence suggest that the mechanism explaining this result is a decrease in the number of people carrying gun in response to the legislation: first, the number of illegal gun carrying decreased and second, only gun-related homicides taking place outside the residence were reduced. Analysis of the subsequent voter referendum, which was defeated by a wide margin, shows stronger support for the complete weapons ban in the areas more affected by gun violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Schneider, 2019. "Crime and political effects of a concealed carry ban in Brazil," Economics and Politics Working Paper Series 99/2019, Economics and Politics Research Group (EPRG), University of Brasília.
    • Handle: RePEc:gvn:eprgwp:992019
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23574340
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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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