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Royalties do petróleo, reeleição e ciclos políticos: um estudo econométrico para as eleições municipais de 2008 e 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Dornelas Munhoz
  • Moisés de Andrade Resende Filho

Abstract

We investigated the effect of oil royalties on the probability of reelection in Brazil based on the literature on the impact of oil royalties on municipal public accounts and on theories of political cycles and voting. We estimated logistic regression models with cross-sectional data from the municipal elections of 2008 and 2012, where the mayor's probability of re-election is a function of receiving or not oil royalties and control variables for political and business cycles, socioeconomic and educational development of the municipality, personal characteristics and partisan vertical alignment of the mayor (mayor-governor-president). Although the regressions were not significant for the 2012 elections, the results for 2008 indicated that oil royalties do not affect the probability of re-election. These results also indicated that mayors from municipalities with more educated voters and who induce political cycles are less likely to be reelected, while mayors with a greater political capital stock, politically aligned with the governor and from municipalities with better socioeconomic conditions are more likely to be reelected.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Dornelas Munhoz & Moisés de Andrade Resende Filho, 2017. "Royalties do petróleo, reeleição e ciclos políticos: um estudo econométrico para as eleições municipais de 2008 e 2012," Economics and Politics Working Paper Series 75/2017, Economics and Politics Research Group (EPRG), University of Brasília.
    • Handle: RePEc:gvn:eprgwp:752017
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23594512
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    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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