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Understanding Robert Lucas (1967-1981)

Author

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  • Alexandre F. S. Andrada

Abstract

This paper analyzes Robert Lucas' contribution to economic theory between 1967 (year of his first solo publication) and 1981 (the year before the emergence of Real Business Cycle approach). The paper has two parts. In the first one, we do a citation analysis, using data from four different sources: Google Scholar, Web of Science, IDEAS RePEc and Jstor. With this data, we answer two questions: what is Lucas most influential papers nowadays? And how this influence changed over the time? We show, for instance, that according to three of those four sources, Lucas' most influential paper today is not from his business cycle research agenda, which gave him his Nobel Prize. Moreover, it is clear the loss of influence of Lucas' macroeconomic theory since early 1980s. In the second part, we construct a ranking with the papers Lucas most often used as reference in his paper, and we separate those reference in 'positive' and 'negative'. We show that the author that Lucas most cited in a positive context were John Muth, Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps. The authors more often cited in a negative context are John M. Keynes and A. W. Phillips. We discuss the reasons behind this data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre F. S. Andrada, 2015. "Understanding Robert Lucas (1967-1981)," Economics and Politics Working Paper Series 49/2015, Economics and Politics Research Group (EPRG), University of Brasília.
    • Handle: RePEc:gvn:eprgwp:492015
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23601552
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    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals

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