Políticas Públicas de Saúde Influenciam o Eleitor?

Due to the growing literature on the electoral behavior and public policy assessment, this research aims to analyze the effect of public health policies in the electoral support to incumbents. To do so, the particular case of Brazil's Popular Pharmacy Program was evaluated, a public program of copayment to a list of essential medicines that covers some of the most prevalent chronic diseases in the population, namely diabetes, hypertensive diseases and asthma. The sample covered all Brazilian municipalities whose mayors ran for reelection in 2008 and the explanatory variables included data related to municipalities and candidates' characteristics for 2004 and 2008. The effect of the program on the vote share of the incumbents was evaluated with the multiple linear regression model with panel data using the method of difference-in-differences, and the effect of the program on the probability of reelection was evaluated with the linear probability model with cross-sectional data using the method of ordinary least squares. The effect of the program on mortality and morbidity indicators related to the main target diseases of the program was also evaluated using the method of difference-in-differences. The results indicate that, in general, the program generated an average increase of 3.4 percentage points in the vote share of the mayors. Moreover, in 2008 the probability of election in municipalities with the program was 9.8 percentage points higher than in the other municipalities. Finally, the results indicated that the program reduced deaths from diabetes and asthma, and hospitalizations for hypertensive diseases, with statistical significance. It is evident the effect of the Popular Pharmacy Program in the electoral support to reelection and in improving municipalities health indicators.