Global Trade Analysis Project Circular Economy (GTAP-CE) Data Base Version 11

Rapidly increasing material extraction is putting major pressure on ecosystems. Future increases in incomes and population could result in over 2.5 times growth in global material demand by 2050, putting even more pressure on the environment. Thus, an absolute decoupling of material use from GDP and income is of major importance to preserve safe operating boundaries. It is vital to understand how current policy efforts, including climate mitigation, could impact material use patterns and what complementary circular economy (CE) policies could be implemented to support dematerialization. At the same time, there is a lack of global datasets and related modeling tools that could support such an analysis. To address this limitation, here we develop a special version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Circular Economy (GTAP-CE) Data Base with detailed representation of primary, secondary, and recycling activities for metals (steel, aluminum, copper, etc.) and plastics, detailed representation of fertilizers, as well as disaggregated cement activity. The GTAP-CE Data Base is based on the v11c of the GTAP-Power Data Base with the 2017 reference year, representing the global economy across 99 activities, 141 individual countries and 19 composite regions. Introduced sectoral splits are designed to facilitate both the assessment of the circular economy policies, as well as Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) measures. The developed GTAP-CE Data Base is distributed in model-friendly formats and can be readily linked to the GTAP-based CGE models for the assessment of various policy scenarios either in the dynamic or static frameworks.