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Using tennis rankings to predict performance in upcoming tournaments

Author

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  • Kuper, Gerard
  • Sierksma, Gerardus
  • Spieksma, Frits

    (University of Groningen)

Abstract

We show how to use ATP and WTA rankings to estimate the probability that a player with a certain ranking advances to a specific round (for instance, the quarterfinals) in an upcoming tournament. We use the results from Grand Slam and Olympic tournaments in the period 2004 – 2014. Pooling the data, which is justified according to our tests, allows us to compute probabilities with relatively small confidence intervals. For instance, the probability of a top 4 tennis player to reach the quarterfinals is 0.722 with a 95% confidenceinterval of (0.669; 0.771). This study was motivated by a request from the Dutch Olympic Committee (NOC*NSF).Based on our results, NOC*NSF decides which Dutch single tennis players to invite to participate at the 2016 Olympic Games of Rio de Janeiro.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuper, Gerard & Sierksma, Gerardus & Spieksma, Frits, 2014. "Using tennis rankings to predict performance in upcoming tournaments," Research Report 14034-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugsom:14034-eef
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11370/9c3cc2c3-5fb7-409a-b50d-ef4c7115a0aa
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