Instant Trend-Seasonal Decomposition of Time Series with Splines
We present a nonparametric method to decompose a times series into trend, seasonal and remainder components. This fully data-driven technique is based on penalized splines and makes an explicit characterization of the varying seasonality and the correlation in the remainder. The procedure takes advantage of the mixed model representation of penalized splines that allows for the simultaneous estimation of all model parameters from the corresponding likelihood. Simulation studies and three data examples illustrate the eff ectiveness of the approach.
|Date of creation:||20 Nov 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Platz der Goettinger Sieben 3; D-37073 Goettingen, GERMANY|
Phone: +49 551 39 14066
Fax: + 49 551 39 14059
Web page: http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/82144.html
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, February.
- Dermot J. Hayes & Andrew Schmitz, 1987.
"Hog Cycles and Countercyclical Production Response,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(4), pages 762-770.
- Hayes, Dermot J. & Schmitz, Andrew, 1987. "Hog Cycles and Countercyclical Production Response," Staff General Research Papers Archive 597, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Pollock, D.S.G., 2006. "Econometric methods of signal extraction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2268-2292, May.
- Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
- Theodore Alexandrov & Silvia Bianconcini & Estela Bee Dagum & Peter Maass & Tucker S. McElroy, 2012. "A Review of Some Modern Approaches to the Problem of Trend Extraction," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 593-624, November.
- Delgado, Luis & Humala, Alberto, 1997. "El mercado bursátil peruano y la hipótesis del mercado eficiente," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 1, pages 73-92.
- Gerda Claeskens & Tatyana Krivobokova & Jean D. Opsomer, 2009. "Asymptotic properties of penalized spline estimators," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(3), pages 529-544.
- Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
- Tatyana Krivobokova, 2011. "Smoothing parameter selection in two frameworks for penalized splines," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 85, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 18 Oct 2012.
- Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, February.
- Kauermann Goeran & Krivobokova Tatyana & Semmler Willi, 2011. "Filtering Time Series with Penalized Splines," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-28, March.
- Krivobokova, Tatyana & Kauermann, Goran, 2007. "A Note on Penalized Spline Smoothing With Correlated Errors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1328-1337, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dominik Noe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.