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Effective Threat, Ineffective Action: The Narrow Influence of the ICC on State Killings in Venezuela

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Alleyne

    (Universidad Católica Andrés Bello)

  • Jose Morales-Arilla

    (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

Abstract

El estudio evalúa si las acciones de la Corte Penal Internacional disuaden la violencia estatal en Venezuela. Mediante un diseño de discontinuidad en la regresión con datos de asesinatos entre 2016 y 2024, encuentra que la remisión de 2018 redujo significativamente las muertes causadas por fuerzas nacionales, pero la determinación fiscal de 2020 no tuvo efecto comparable. La disuasión parece operar cuando la persecución aún puede evitarse mediante moderación.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Alleyne & Jose Morales-Arilla, 2026. "Effective Threat, Ineffective Action: The Narrow Influence of the ICC on State Killings in Venezuela," Working Paper Series of the School of Government and Public Transformation 40, School of Governement and Public Transformation.
  • Handle: RePEc:gnt:wpaper:40
    as

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    File URL: https://egobiernoytp.tec.mx/sites/default/files/2026-08/Effective_Threat_Ineffective_Action.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2026
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