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Effective Threat, Ineffective Action: The Narrow Influence of the ICC on State Killings in Venezuela

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Alleyne

    (Universidad Católica Andrés Bello)

  • Jose Morales-Arilla

    (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey)

Abstract

The study assesses whether International Criminal Court actions deter state violence in Venezuela. Using a regression discontinuity design with state-perpetrated killings data from 2016 to 2024, it finds that the 2018 referral significantly reduced killings by nationally commanded security forces, but the 2020 prosecutorial determination had no comparable effect. Deterrence appears to operate when prosecution can still be avoided through moderation.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Alleyne & Jose Morales-Arilla, 2026. "Effective Threat, Ineffective Action: The Narrow Influence of the ICC on State Killings in Venezuela," Working Paper Series of the School of Government and Public Transformation 40, School of Government and Public Transformation.
    • Handle: RePEc:gnt:wpaper:40
    as

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    File URL: https://egobiernoytp.tec.mx/sites/default/files/2026-08/Effective_Threat_Ineffective_Action.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2026
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