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Causas do Atraso na Estabilização da Inflação: Abordagem Teórica e Empírica

Author

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  • Vítor Castro

    (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra)

Abstract

Desde a década de 50 que um grupo de países tem vindo a evidenciar níveis de inflação elevados durante longos períodos de tempo sem que as necessárias medidas de estabilização sejam adoptadas com a devida celeridade. Essas medidas são muitas vezes adiadas, sendo os respectivos programas de estabilização, baseados na massa monetária ou na taxa de câmbio, implementados apenas quando a situação económica se agrava. Porque é que isso acontece? Essa é a questão que se procura responder neste trabalho. Na literatura encontram-se várias explicações para esse adiamento ou atraso. As que parecem fazer mais sentido são as que se baseiam na racionalidade dos agentes ou no entendimento das relações económicas básicas. Essas explicações são avançadas pelos modelos políticos de conflito, nos quais o atraso resulta geralmente de problemas de coordenação causados pelos mecanismos de tomada de decisões colectivas. Embora vários estudos tenham já procurado testar os efeitos da instabilidade e fragmentação política na senhoriagem, na dívida pública, nos défices orçamentais, na inflação e mesmo na probabilidade de implementação de um programa de estabilização da inflação, nenhum deles chega a testar directamente a influência desses factores no atraso em estabilizar a inflação. Este trabalho é inovador ao proceder a esses testes. É usado um modelo tobit para se aferir os determinantes do atraso na estabilização da inflação. Os resultados empíricos destacam o grau de fragmentação do sistema político e o índice de fragmentação da distribuição dos lugares no Parlamento como importantes factores desse atraso. Estes resultados são reforçados com o uso de um modelo logit binário para a análise dos factores que poderão influenciar a propensão para implementação de um programa de estabilização. Nesta última análise verifica-se ainda que à medida que a inflação aumenta, a predisposição para que seja desencadeada a estabilização também aumenta.

Suggested Citation

  • Vítor Castro, 2003. "Causas do Atraso na Estabilização da Inflação: Abordagem Teórica e Empírica," GEMF Working Papers 2003-05, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2003-05
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estabilização da Inflação; Atraso na Estabilização; Conflitos de Interesses;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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