The Devil’s in the Dance: Elements of a Growth Diagnostic in Bolivia

Bolivia’s economy stands at a crossroads. Weakened by the fiscal and external imbalances triggered by the 2014 fall in gas prices and exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the country faces a complex challenge: how to reignite economic growth while restoring macroeconomic stability. This paper applies the Growth Diagnostic methodology to identify the most binding constraints to growth in Bolivia and proposes pathways forward for policy reform. The paper presents Bolivia’s growth syndrome as “La Diablada” or the dance of the devil—a dance between opposing priorities. On one side lies the need for fiscal consolidation to address mounting imbalances; on the other, an urgent need to stimulate demand and support recovery after the COVID-19 shock. This collision of policy needs creates a situation where missteps in either direction could be highly disruptive, risking either prolonged stagnation or macroeconomic crisis. The paper finds that Bolivia’s current growth model—heavily reliant on commodity-led rents and public sector-led investment—has reached its limits. The economic challenge is that the historical engine of growth in Bolivia—net government spending fueled by rising gas prices—cannot drive growth in the current period. Even a short-run recovery in gas prices belies the structural challenges in demand for gas exports in Argentina and Brazil, along with the supply of gas, in the lack of investments in new discovery. Structural weaknesses also include a rising wage bill dominated by public employment, the lack of foreign investment, and a lack of economic diversification into higher complexity sectors. Political uncertainty and institutional inefficiencies, especially among state-owned enterprises (SOEs), further erode the country’s fiscal space and growth potential.