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Predicting the NFL Performance of Highly-Drafted Quarterbacks



We estimate econometric models to predict the future performance of National Football League (NFL) quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Using previously agreed-upon measurement criteria, we find that our approach outperforms other specifications currently in use. Since our methods are replicable, stakeholders can use them to improve the draft’s efficiency and help it accomplish its mission to promote competitive balance. In addition, we find that functional mobility best predicts NFL success, and playing in a pro-style offense does not predict NFL success.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Rosen & Alexandre Olbrecht, 2017. "Predicting the NFL Performance of Highly-Drafted Quarterbacks," Working Papers gueconwpa~17-17-08, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~17-17-08

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    Efficiency; Prediction Methods; NFL; Quarterback;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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