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An Outcome-Oriented Theory of Choice and Empirical Paradoxes in Expected Utility Theory


  • Kaneko, F.


I analyze observed choice between lotteries from an outcome-oriented point of view in the framework of choice between random variables. I characterize a choice maker, who faces a choice situation between lotteries, by (1) a surmising process that associates, with a pair of lotteries, a set of well-defined cjoice situations between random variables, and (2) a choice set that is a collection of well-defined choice situations. I give a partial axiomatic foundation of the theory. The theory is applied to explain the well-known paradoxes in expected utility theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaneko, F., 1997. "An Outcome-Oriented Theory of Choice and Empirical Paradoxes in Expected Utility Theory," Papers 774, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:yalegr:774

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    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations


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