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An Assessment of the Quality of Subjective Probability Judgements in a Naturalistic Setting

Author

Listed:
  • Alistair, B.
  • Johnson
  • J.E.V.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to explore the extent to which human judgement and resultant decision-making in a natural setting reflects the performance characteristics suggested by experimental work. in order to explore the quality of decisions made in a natural setting, an analysis is undertaken of bets placed on 19 396 hoeses in the UK parimutuel betting market.

Suggested Citation

  • Alistair, B. & Johnson & J.E.V., 1999. "An Assessment of the Quality of Subjective Probability Judgements in a Naturalistic Setting," Papers 99-146, University of Southampton - Department of Accounting and Management Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:sotoam:99-146
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DECISION MAKING ; PROBABILITY ; BEHAVIOUR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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