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Quelle politique budgetaire dans une economie vieillissante? Le cas du Japon et un peu de theorie


  • Artus, P.


Nous utilisons un modele theorique a generations imbriquees, avec transferts et depenses publiques pour examiner ce que doit etre la reponse optimale de la politique budgetaire au vieillissement demographique. Nous partons du cas du Japon, ou le vieillissement a entraine une chute de la demande privee et de la productivite et ou il a contribue a l'apparition puis a l'eclatement d'une bulle speculative sur les prix d'actifs. Nous nous interessons en particulier au moyen optimal d'accroitre le bien-etre de la derniere generation nombreuse qui souffre d'une chute de ses retraites par repartition.

Suggested Citation

  • Artus, P., 1999. "Quelle politique budgetaire dans une economie vieillissante? Le cas du Japon et un peu de theorie," Papers 1999-42/ma, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:cadeco:1999-42/ma

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bradley, Michael D & Potter, Susan M, 1986. "The State of the Federal Budget and the State of the Economy: Further Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(1), pages 143-153, January.
    3. Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1990. "The `New' EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bernard CONNOLLY & Jurgen KRÖGER, 1993. "Economic Convergence in the Integrating Community Economy and the Role of Economic Policies," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1993012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination


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