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Une bulle auto-validante est-elle possible?

Author

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  • Artus, P.

Abstract

Nous nous interessons sur la possibilite que l'apparition d'une bulle speculative sur la bourse puisse modifier l'equilibre economique de maniere que cette bulle ne soit en fait que le reflet d'une valorisation boursiere normale une fois que l'equilibre economique a varie. Le mecanisme que nous suggerons est le suivant: une bulle (une hausse anormale des cours boursiers) stimule la consommation, d'ou une hausse de la production et de l'investissement, et aussi de la profitabilite future du capital. Cette derniere peut etre telle qu'elle rend rationnelle la hausse initiale des cours. Nous modelisons ce mecanisme a l'aide d'un modele theorique a deux periodes representant les choix de consommation et d'epargne ainsi que l'accumulation de capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Artus, P., 1999. "Une bulle auto-validante est-elle possible?," Papers 1999-41/ma, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:cadeco:1999-41/ma
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MONNAIE ; MARCHE FINANCIER ; MACROECONOMIE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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