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Nonlinear Regime Shifts in Oil Price Hedging Dynamics

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  • Giulio Cifarelli

    () (Dipartimento Scienze Economiche)

Abstract

The interaction between rational hedgers and informed oil traders is parameterized and tested empirically with the help of a complex non linear smooth transition regime shift CCC-GARCH procedure. In spite of their gyrations, futures price changes are usually self-correcting. Well informed producers and consumers will ensure that crude oil prices – and thus the prices of the corresponding futures contracts – fluctuate within a long run equilibrium range determined by market fundamentals. During the 2008 oil price upswing, however, shifts in positions in the futures markets by well informed optimizing agents, that usually dampen price changes, result in destabilizing positive feedback trading. Futures price changes that can be classified as speculative are due to hedgers’ reaction to movements in the variability of the return of their covered cash position.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Cifarelli, 2011. "Nonlinear Regime Shifts in Oil Price Hedging Dynamics," Working Papers - Economics wp2011_13.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  • Handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2011_13.rdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price dynamics; dynamic hedging; logistic smooth transition; multivariate GARCH.;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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