IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Conjunction Fallacy: Explanations of the Linda Problem by the Theory of Hints

Empirical research has shown that in some situations subjects tend to assign a probability to a conjunction of two events that is larger than the probability they assign to each of these two events. This empirical phenomenon is traditionally called the conjunction fallacy. One of the best known experiment used to demonstrate the conjunction fallacy is the Linda problem introduced by Tversky and Kahneman in 1982. They explain the “fallacious behavior” by their so-called judgemental heuristics. These heuristics have been heavily criticized by Gigerenzer (1996) as being far “too vague to count as explanations”. In this paper, it is shown that the “fallacious behavior” in the Linda problem can be explained by the so-called Theory of Hints developed by Kohlas and Monney in 1995.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland in its series FSES Working Papers with number 347.

in new window

Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 2003, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 75-91.
Handle: RePEc:fri:fribow:347
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bd de Pérolles 90, CH-1700 Fribourg
Phone: +41 26 300 8200
Fax: +41 26 300 9725
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fri:fribow:347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivo raemy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.