IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/tmddps/91.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing impacts of declines in the world price of tobacco on China, Malawi, Turkey, and Zimbabwe

Author

Listed:
  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Thomas, Marcelle
  • Wobst, Peter

Abstract

This study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand for tobacco products. The study finds that tobacco exports and production in the three developing countries, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Turkey, would be badly hit if world tobacco prices fall due to the decline in tobacco demand. Moreover, for a given decrease in the world tobacco price, the more important the tobacco sector is in an economy, the worse the tobacco sector is hit. Tobacco is quite important to the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies as tobacco production and trade accounted for, respectively, 17% and 43% of agricultural GDP and tobacco exports accounted for 50% and 35% of national exports in these two countries. The negative effects of a decline in world tobacco prices on the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies are much larger than that on the Turkish economy. In the case of China, tobacco production, marketing, cigarette processing, distribution, and foreign trade are strictly controlled by the government and tobacco trade accounted for a small share of production and consumption. Thus, the decline in the world tobacco prices would hardly affect China's tobacco sector. The study shows that it is highly risky for a developing country to highly depend on exports of a single agricultural commodity. To reduce such risk, a country has to create a more diversified and flexible export structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Diao, Xinshen & Robinson, Sherman & Thomas, Marcelle & Wobst, Peter, 2002. "Assessing impacts of declines in the world price of tobacco on China, Malawi, Turkey, and Zimbabwe," TMD discussion papers 91, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:91
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/tmdp91.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade and agricultural policies in Malawi: Not all policy reform is equally good for the poor," MPRA Paper 40948, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.