Synopsis: Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

This research quantifies how demographic change, urbanization, and healthy diet requirements will reshape Tanzania’s food supply. Using contextualized healthy diet benchmarks, it identifies the scale, composition, and policy implications of food system transformation needed to ensure healthy diets in Tanzania by 2050. Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double by 2050, with rapid urbanization increasing the share of urban residents from one-third to more than half and intensifying pressure on food supply systems and rural–urban linkages. To align with this growth, annual food supplies also need to increase by more than double—from about 24 million tons in 2020/21 to 52–62 million tons by 2050—but must do so with fewer food producers. Current diets are dominated by cereals and sugar, while fruits, vegetables, dairy, eggs, and animalsource foods are substantially under-consumed across all four geographic population strata. Future food system transformation should primarily focus on increasing supplies of dairy, eggs, fruits, and vegetables, and, for diets focused on micronutrients, meat and fish. For most priority foods, required productivity gains fall within current global technological frontiers, but environmental constraints—particularly for livestock—necessitate climate-smart intensification and protein source substitution. High postharvest losses, misalignment between nutrition priorities and agricultural policy—specifically Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan—and weak rural–urban food system integration are critical bottlenecks and policy entry points for achieving healthy diets sustainably.