The changing demographics in Nigeria’s food systems and implications for future youth engagement

Food systems (FS) are critically important for youth employment in sub-Saharan Africa. FS must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations, provide the quantity and quality of food demanded by increased urbanization and income, and to complement technological changes in other sectors. Expansion of nonfarm components of FS also reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. The impact of these factors, their inevitability and amenability to policy interventions, and the extent of FS transformation needed differ across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment also vary across countries. However, few systems are currently in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy. This study explores the evolution of employment in Nigeria’s FS over the past two decades, focusing on youth and gender inclusion amid broader demographic, economic, and policy shifts. As Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria is experiencing all the factors that typically shape FS and labor markets. With the working-age population growing by nearly 90 percent between 2000 and 2023 and youth unemployment remaining high, the agrifood system (AFS) presents both a challenge and an opportunity for inclusive economic transformation. The paper begins by situating FS as critical to Nigeria’s economy, highlighting their contributions to GDP and employment. Using national living standards survey data, it examines structural changes in employment, particularly the shift away from on-farm agricultural work toward nonfarm segments such as food processing, trade, and services. Between 2003 and 2022, agriculture’s share in total employment fell from 58 percent to 35 percent, while nonfarm AFS employment grew from 12 percent to 33 percent. Women and youth have been central to this shift, with women’s participation in nonfarm AFS increasing by 190 percent and youth participation growing by over 300 percent—growth was especially faster in trade and food manufacturing. The analysis links these labor trends to key drivers such as economic growth, policy reforms, urbanization, and conflict. While Nigeria’s economy nearly tripled between 2000 and 2023 and poverty declined, economic gains have been uneven and fragile, particularly in the northern regions affected by insecurity. Government efforts—including the Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016-2020), National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (2022-2027), and the creation of the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit (2023)—signal a growing shift toward an FS approach in policy thinking. However, gaps in institutional coordination, inadequate investment in enabling infrastructure, and limited inclusion of vulnerable groups constrain the impact of these reforms. The study concludes that Nigeria’s AFS holds potential for inclusive growth and employment generation. However, realizing this potential requires sustaining the policy focus from narrow agricultural productivity to a broader FS strategy that centers on employment quality, gender equity, youth entrepreneurship, and institutional alignment. Without such a transformation, Nigeria risks even more youth unemployment and discontent, thus missing the demographic dividend. But with targeted investments in skills, infrastructure, and policy coherence, the AFS can serve as a powerful lever for sustainable development and economic opportunity.